We promised another preview for this years Open Championship before our main one and we would never go back on our word!
PLEASE DO CHECK OUT OUR 3RD AND FINAL PREVIEW WITH ALL OUR PICKS AND SELECTIONS!!
As for this 2nd write-up we have looked into the trends and stats that are required to combat Hoylake and win on a links course. Every Open Championship track has different attributes, there’s no denying that, but on the whole their similarities in terms of a classical links test make it worthwhile to look into previous years.
What trends and stats we will be looking into?
- Only Ben Curtis (2003) has won on debut since 1975
- Tiger hit 85.71% of fairways (1st) and 80.56% GIR (2nd) to win in 2006 (when it was last held at Royal Liverpool, Hoylake) Therefore, we will be looking at top 75 for driving accuracy and GIR (Last 5 winners were also all inside the top 75 for GIR before the tournament)
- Last 5 winners were inside the top 50 for scoring average – (We will look at the top 75)
- Only 5 managed to finish Par 4s in red numbers in 2006 – Therefore we are looking at around the top 75 for par 4 performance (PGA TOUR ONLY)
- 4 par 5’s – Tiger shot -14 and Carl Pettersson shot -16 to finish T8 – Therefore we are looking at around the top 75 par 5 performance (PGA TOUR ONLY)
- Since 1980, every winner barring Ben Curtis, Paul Lawrie (1999), Justin Leonard (1997) have won at least 7 professional titles before winning The Open.
- Barring Jon Daly (1995) and Ben Curtis, the past 20 champions have either won on the PGA or European Tour or finished in the top 10 at one of the two previous majors.
- 64% of winners over the last 15 years played the course at least once before winning.
- Only Ben Curtis in the last decade didn’t have at least 8 years experience as a pro before winning.
- Average age of the last 10 winners is 33.8 but in the past 5 years that has increased to 38.
So, what we are going to do, similar to our Masters previews, is break down the majority of the field and see which players, if any, are left by fitting all these stats and trends. The names you see under each title have not made that respective category and will not be considered further.
Only Ben Curtis (2003) has won on debut since 1975
Ben Curtis winning The Open. That was a genuine shock. Photo by Nicolas Asfouri, GettyImages
Patrick Reed, Brendon Todd, Chris Kirk, Chris Stroud, Brendon De Jonge, Cameron Tringale, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Every, Ben Martin, Erik Compton, Brendan Steele, Chesson Hadley, Shawn Stefani, Billy Hurley, Roberto Castro, Kristoffer Broberg
Top 75 in Driving Accuracy
PGA Tour – Tiger Woods,Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Ian Poulter, Hideki Matsuyama, Charl Schwartzel, Ernie Els, Paul Casey, Angel Cabrera, Louis Oosthuizen, Jimmy Walker, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, Gary Woodland, Jonas Blixt, Padraig Harrington, Harris English, Marc Leishman, Charley Hoffman, JB Holmes, Ryo Ishikawa, Brooks Koepka, Freddie Jacobson, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, Stewart Cink, Ryan Palmer, Matt Jones, Russell Henley, Scott Stallings, Jon Daly, George McNeill
European Tour – Thomas Bjorn, Jamie Donaldson, Mikko Ilonen, Victor Dubuisson, Joost Luiten, Matteo Manassero, Robert Karlsson, Stephen Gallacher, Thongchai Jaidee, Padraig Harrington, Branden Grace, Shane Lowry, Chris Wood, George Coetzee, Michael Hoey, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Richard Sterne, Thorbjorn Olesen, Brooks Koepka, Pablo Larrazabal, Paul Lawrie, David Howell, Darren Clarke, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Peter Uihlein, Brett Rumford, Victor Riu
Top 75 Greens In Regulation
PGA Tour – Jason Day, Luke Donald, Brandt Snedeker, Hunter Mahan, Billy Horschel, John Senden, KJ Choi, Kevin Streelman
European Tour – Miguel Angel Jimenez
Top 75 Scoring Average
PGA Tour – Nick Watney, Boo Weekley
European Tour – Bernd Wiesberger
Top 75 Par 4 Performance
Kevin Stadler
Top 75 Par 5 Performance
Jason Dufner, Jim Furyk, Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia
At least 7 professional titles before winning The Open
Francesco Molinari, Matthew Baldwin, Oliver Fisher, Kevin Na, Ryan Moore, Chris Stroud
At least a win on the PGA Tour or European Tour this season OR a top 10 at The Masters or US Open
Edoardo Molinari, Grégory Bourdy
64% of winners over the last 15 years played the course at least once before winning
Matt Kuchar
Only Ben Curtis in the last decade didn’t have at least 8 years experience as a pro before winning – With the average age of 33.8 as well.
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Believe it or not, after all that we have got 2 names that have survived. Two players who are certainly no mugs and unsurprisingly have a cracking links history.
A Major champion already, how about one more then? Photo by Peter Casey
Recent Open History
| 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
| T6 | T9 | T16 | T76 | T47 | T51 |
Links History in the past 2 years
| Won | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 25 | Made Cut | Missed Cut |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Stats
| Driving Accuracy | GIR | Scoring Average | Par 4 Perform. | Par 5 Perform. | Pro Titles | 2006 Open Finish |
| 6th | 30th | 30th | T45 | T24 | 26 | MC |
Now 38, Zach Johnson has already had a remarkable career. He has a major title in his locker (the 2007 Masters) and is one of the most consistent performers on tour. Even with everything he’s achieved he has seemed to have found an extra gear again in the past year or so and to think you can get him at 50/1. Very intriguing.
He had an amazing start to the season, winning the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and recording 6 top 10s. Yes, he hasn’t been finding the 1st page of leaderboards in the past month, but at the time of writing he is just a couple of shots behind the lead at the John Deere Classic, which will give him plenty of confidence.
He is one of those players who suits the challenges of links golf. He has consecutive top 10s in the Open and his ability to manufacture ball flight and push the ball exactly how he wants makes him a prime candidate every year. His tee to green efficiencies and short game prowess is a really, really dangerous combination.
Adam Scott (18/1 Coral BEST PRICE)
Scott was left devastated after that 2012 collapse. Oh how things have changed. Photo courtesy of Harry How/GettyImages
Recent Open History
| 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
| T3 | 2nd | T25 | T27 | MC | T16 |
Links History in the past 2 years
| Won | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 25 | Made Cut | Missed Cut |
| – | 3 | 2 | 1 | – | – |
Stats
| Driving Accuracy | GIR | Scoring Average | Par 4 Perform. | Par 5 Perform. | Pro Titles | 2006 Open Finish |
| 63rd | 31st | 4th | T2 | T67 | 27 | T8 |
The number one golfer in the world and the most consistent player of the past 2 years or so. If anything, since that horrendous collapse at Royal Lytham & St.Annes in 2012 to finish one shot behind Ernie Els after a 75 final day score. He was destined for great things, no doubt, but losing that trophy seemed to really kick-start his assault to the golfing summit. Let’s just put this into perspective. Here is his form since that Open Championship.
| Won | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 25 | Made Cut | Missed Cut |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | – |
What an unbelievable return that is, it is no wonder he is now looking down at the rest of the world in the rankings. It is madness how consistent that is and a lot of those top 10/5/wins are in very big tournaments as well. Well, he rarely plays in anything but the biggest tournaments. As for his links game, you cannot ask for anything more. A swing that will never deviate and his abilities to manoeuvre the ball with ease make him one of the best links players. 3 of his European Tour wins have come on very traditional links tracks and his Open record is clearly impressive. The fact he finished T8 here in 2008 as well, only add to his appeal.
What a player.
Honourable Mentions
Graeme McDowell (33/1 Coral BEST PRICE) and Henrik Stenson (16/1 Coral, WillHill, Ladbrokes)
No need for introductions with either of these top players. Gmac is a proven links guru and the only category he failed to tick was the par 5 performance. BUT you have to remember this is only on the PGA Tour and he is a regular both sides of the pond. He plays the longer holes with a plotting head because of his lack of length. He has played here before (T61) and is in fantastic rhythm following his win in Paris a few weeks ago.
Henrik Stenson is one of the hardest workers in the game. He completely went off the boil for a couple of years, but toiled and toiled and toiled, to eventually find his rhythm and do the unthinkable – win the FedEx and Race To Dubai in the same season. Madness. He is such a long hitter and when he is straight, he can be untouchable. His major form in recent seasons is outstanding as well – a worst finish of T21 in the past 6 years, which includes 3 top 5s. He will be a top challenger once again this year.
Luke Donald (50/1 Coral BEST PRICE), Matt Kuchar (40/1 Ladbrokes), Justin Rose (12/1 WillHill) and Jim Furyk (66/1 Ladbrokes) all ticked many of the categories, but didn’t quite make it.
That’s it for our 2nd preview, as we say our final write-up with all our selections will be on the site tomorrow night (GMT). Happy World Cup Final Day.
DownThe18th 