WGC Bridgestone Invitational 2015

Prize Fund – $9,250,000

Winner’s Share – $1,530,000

Course – Firestone CC (7,400 yards par 70)

Our 2014 Picks – Matt Kuchar (T12), Sergio Garcia (2nd), Martin Kaymer (T56), Jim Furyk (T15), Angel Cabrera (T31)

So Troy Merritt last week, what was that all about? The guy goes 5 missed cuts in a row, a best of T52 in his last 10, opens up in the betting at 250/1 – wins the Quicken Loans National. It’s why we love the game but it’s why we hate it at times too.

Quick shout out to Danny Lee as well, his win last month has got the Kiwi playing on a different level, his form reads – 1^st, 3^rd, MC (Open), 4^th. And as a he’s a well-documented single man, we’re jumping all over the #FindDannyAGirl campaign. If it works, we’ll give it a crack too. Although we should probably get a bit better at golf first.

Right, Firestone CC. The last 5 winners tell us all we need to know about what type of player does well around here – McIlroy, Woods, Bradley, Scott, Mahan. They hit it long and on their day, straight as well. The course stands at 7,400 yards with a par of 70. Any short hitters, except for the Z.Johnson, Furyk and Kuchars out there, will get gobbled up.

Courtesy of PGA Tour

Course form is a huge priority for us, if you’ve not got a top 20 around here before we won’t give you the time of day. Of the last 5 winners, Bradley’s T15 the year before he won was the worst ‘best finish’ of the five, everyone else had at least a top 10.

Something that perhaps some people often overlook is that this is a WGC and the pressures of winning such an event. There’s a reason why the top end of the betting is so packed. You’re not going to get any Troy Merritt’s winning this, sadly. For that reason, you need to be looking at top quality players who are playing well right now. As ever, we’ve factored in statistics to an extent and have looked closely at total driving, par 4 performance, 200-225 yard approaches and scrambling.

Justin Rose (16/1 Various)

Short odds, yes, but the Englishman is striking the ball as good as ever after his 4^th on the Robert Trent Jones track last week which was preceded by a 6^th at the Open. His year has gone under the radar somewhat when you think he’s gone T2 at Augusta, win at the Zurich Classic, then 2^nd at Memorial. But with Rose now a major winner, he gets compared with the very best and since his 2013 US Open win, he hasn’t won a ‘big one’. We feel that time is now.

He ranked 1^st in all-round ranking last week which is ideal for a course that will test every facet of your game. Frankly, tee to green there’s no better out there and it is a course that screams Justin Rose. His form at Firestone speaks for itself, three top 5’s and a further two top 20’s with his second-best performance coming last year, 4^th.

Hideki Matsuyama (25/1 Various)

Muirfield Village, host of the Memorial tournament, seems to have a lot of similar trends when comparing with Firestone and that bodes extremely well for the for anyone who’s won around there. The Japanese golfer’s only win on the tour to date came last year, at Muirfield.

Technically speaking, Matsuyama has the lot. His slow backswing means everything is inch-perfect and what’s so good about this guy is that he loves the big occasions. He burst on the scene two years ago with three top 20’s in the year’s final three majors. Well, he’s at it again this year with three top 20’s in the first three. Not quite Rickie Fowler-esque from last year but these are good trends.

He’s one of the very best off the tee and also ranks 1^st in the ‘tee to green’ stat and 2^nd in par 4 performance. So when you see his first two appearances at this WGC have seen him finish 21st and then 12^th last year, everything seems to be pointing in one direction.

Matt Kuchar (45/1 Coral)

Kuch hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders in recent months and it’s why, for the time being anyway, he often finds himself in the middle of the pack when it comes to odds. But we’ve seen enough in his last few appearances to see that he’s ready to weigh in with another win.

The upwards curve begin with his T12 at the US Open which he then followed with a T2 at the Scottish Open, in behind his American buddy Fowler. St Andrews was tough but he then finished T7 at the Canadian two weeks ago. Look closer and you’ll find he averaged 310 yards off the tee while maintaining his accuracy, finishing 4^th in fairways found. For someone you would label a shorter hitter, his driving looks pretty perfect coming into Firestone.

In his five appearances at the Bridgestone, he’s finished outside the top 20 once (27^th in 2013) and has two top 10’s in those five. Big tick on the course form front. Like Matsuyama, we have to mention the Muirfield link – he loves it there and won in 2013.

Marc Leishman (50/1 Coral)

Andrew Redington/Getty Images North America

At 50/1, the Aussie actually feels like an outsider. This was a pretty simple pick for us. We all know what he did at the Open and it’s starting to become a regular thing for him now, doing it in the big events.

He held the first round lead here last year after shooting a 64 and eventually ended up finishing in a comfortable solo 3^rd, three shots ahead of the pack and 3 three shots adrift of Rory. His big finish at Firestone last year came off the back of a 5^th at the Open. So the transition from links golf to Firestone is one he’s proven he can do, time for him to go 2 better this time around.

Madeira Islands Open 2015

Prize Fund – €600,000

Winner’s Share – €100,000

Course – Clube de Golf do Santo da Serra (6,826 par 72)

Our 2014 Picks – No Picks

Right then, so after an incredible couple of month’s golf in Europe which ended with a superb win for Danny Willett in the Swiss Alps, we now move onto a week that we doesn’t whet the appetite greatly. The idea of the Paul Lawrie Match Play and re-run of the postponed Madeira Islands Open hasn’t made us jump off our seats in excitement like recent events, but still there is some money to be made we think.

And that brings us to our first point for Europe this week – we are simply not going anywhere near the Match Play. The field is far too random, admittedly there’s some decent players there, but it really isn’t worth it in our opinion. We are big advocates of this format and love watching a 1 vs 1 battle, but there’s too many factors here that make it too tough to call, the main reason being it’s straight knockout style.

By all means go ahead if you fancy it, our recommendation would be some cheeky in-play bets on specific matches and even an accumulator – something we may consider further in the tournament’s progression.

So, we are going to re-visit Madeira for our betting plans and ignore Lawrie and his chums for now. Plus, we were one of the many who had JB Hansen enjoying a nice lead when the heavens opened on the Portuguese Island a few months ago, so we feel like we’re owed something here.

As we wrote back then, Santo de Serra is a shot 6,826 yard par 72 that is perched on top of a mountain, with quite generous fairways and significant elevation changes all leading up to the tightly compact and undulating greens.

 

courtesy of visitmadeira

The Trent Jones family is not only the designer across the pond this week, because this is another one of his fine creations. He’s developed a place that relies on the Atlantic coastal winds for protection, because on a calm day, anyone with distance can rip this place apart – 4 reachable par 5’s and 7 sub 400-yard par 4’s. That says it all really.

You only have to look back to 2013 when the big-hitting Peter Uihlein (who only found 40% fairways) grabbed his maiden win here. The likes of Madsen, Henry, Benson are names just at first glance who have enjoyed success here and are certainly not shy off the tee.

We’re only plumping for a team of 4 here though because the odds aren’t the greatest, but let’s hope our boys prove to be good value…

JB Hansen (33/1 various)

Big hitting JB

We couldn’t not really could we?! JB Hansen was leading before the postponement and his form is actually better now then it was then, so it seems stupid not to chuck our money on the 24-year old again.

His lowest finish in his last 6 outings is T26, including 3 top 10’s, which proves how well he’s playing at the moment.

He hits the ball a long way and has the ability to overpower this track, as he showed a few months back.

33’s for a regular Challenge Tour player may seem short, but he has, without doubt, some of the best form of anyone in the field and the fact he’s already shown what he can do round here, it seems a no brainer in our eyes.

Carlos Del Moral (45/1 BetFred)

Yet another hot caddie wife!
Courtesy of European Tour

Carlos Del Moral is an intriguing player this week and considering he is one of a few who’ve been playing regular European Tour golf this season, his odds are incredibly appealing.

Firstly, he is one of the bigger hitters on the circuit – averaging over 302 yards (15^th for driving distance). Secondly he showed some real class at the BMW in Germany when he recorded one of his highest finishes on the main Tour so far – T4. His 65 on the Saturday propelled him up the leaderboard and was an exhibition in raw power off the tee (1^st for distance on the day), impenetrable irons (22^nd GIR) and holing those chances you create (4^th putts per GIR.)

Basically, it’s perfect golf and the fact he went on to play a similar brand on the Sunday, proves to us that he could have a major say on Madeira this week. Plus, he’s finished 4^th here before as well…

Chris Paisley (50/1 BetFred)

Nice smile Christophe.
Courtesy of Zimbio

Chris Paisley is mainly a Challenge Tour play, but he has plenty of experience at the higher level to know what it’s all about. He has that feel of one of those players who knows what it would mean to win here. The benefits are endless and it could be a major career-turning point for anyone of his current level.

Much like Del Moral, Paisley showed some of his potential in Germany where he actually went one better and finished solo 3^rd. He was in the final group on the Sunday, just a couple of strokes behind James Morrison, but neither could capitalise on their early efforts. His putting throughout the week was incredible – he never left the top 10 for each round, whilst he was averaging just over 290 off the tee and playing well with his irons.

All in all it was a decent outing, which he’s backed up with a solid T44 in Switzerland last week and the fact he’s had 3 finishes inside the top 22 here proves he knows the track.

Jens Dantorp (80/1 Coral)

Cracking attire

Our final pick this week comes in the form of a young Swede, Jens Dantorp. The Scandinavian country seems to be churning out decent players at the moment and this 26-year old seems like another one who could achieve a few things in his time.

He won a ridiculous 8 Nordic Golf League titles and broke through on the Challenge Tour in 2013 at the prestigious Rolex Trophy, but since then it has all been relatively quiet.

In fact he didn’t even feature inside the top 10 again till this year when he came T8 in Turkey back in May.

A solo 2^nd followed before he announced himself again in front of his home crowd at the Nordea Masters.

Along with young amateur star Markus Kinhult, Dantorp found himself propped at the top of a leaderboard containing names with far more credential sniffing below.

He was averaging 300 yards off the tee and didn’t drop outside the top 10 for putting stats across those 2 days. Obviously he tailed off slightly at the weekend, but to keep himself in the hunt as long as he did in a big event, shows the potential he has.

Sadly, he’s gone on to miss 3 out of his next 4 cuts on the Challenge Tour, but we are going to look past that because he does suit everything on paper and at 80’s is definitely worth a punt.

Quicken Loans National 2015

Prize Fund – $6,700,00

Winner’s Share – $1,170,000

Course – Robert Trent Jones GC (7,385 yards par 71) – New Course

Our 2014 Picks – Jason Day (MC), Nick Watney (T30), Hunter Mahan (T24), Angel Cabrera (T24), Shawn Stefani (2nd)

Another week down on the PGA and everything is really hotting up ahead of what we think we will be a fascinating Presidents Cup and FedEx Cup finale. Yes Jordan Spieth is quite a bit ahead of others, but the 2^nd string are beginning to really crowd up now – there is just a couple of decent finishes from Bubba Watson right through to 16^th place Brooks Koepka and that is exciting. But everyone is going to have to take advantage when the golden boy isn’t playing and Jason Day did just that last week, now it’s the turn of Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Jimmy Walker to have their say (can we say Tiger Woods still or…?)

Undoubtedly they’re the 3-pronged superstars spearheading the field this week but taking them out the equation and we have a fairly ordinary line-up to stick our claws into.

The Quicken Loans National 2015 (in association with the Tiger Woods Foundation) is generally a top event that has attracted some pretty impressive winners in recent years – Rose and Tiger have won it twice, whilst Bill Haas, Nick Watney, Anthony Kim and KJ Choi have all picked up the trophy as well.

At the time of their wins, they were all in the higher bracket of players and some of that definitely has to do with the courses they were playing on. Congressional is a US Open track, whilst Aronimink has hosted majors from amateur through to Senior. But we will not be on either track for the 2015 edition, because we’re moving to a beautiful course in Virginia called Robert Trent Jones Golf Club.

Absolutely no prizes for guessing who designed it though, but the man who brought us Congressional, Firestone, Spyglass Hill and Hazeltine among a whole host of others, stated that this was one of his finest. And that is really saying something.

The 7, 385 yard Par 71 is a typical Jones course. Meandering round Lake Manassas in Gainesville, water is brought into play on 9 holes, making accuracy instantly a thought to ponder.

Plenty of water in play

We’ve seen a lot more death-defying tree-lined fairways across the season, but there are still plenty to to make everyone think off the tee, especially with the strategically placed bunkers dotted around (and the water of course!) The greens are large and characteristically undulating, making them tough reads and at times, very pacy.

It’s imperative that the guys get their eye in during the practice rounds to work out the better pin positions to attack and where the uphill putts are. If the rain comes as forecast however, the fairways and greens could hold up the ball, making it target practice for those who are on it tee to green.

We are basically looking for those that can hit the ball a relatively fair distance, but have a decent Total Driving combination, ball strikers and longer iron gurus, because of the three Par 5’s and four Par 3’s that await. If you can scramble, that of course is a bonus…!

All in all, this will be a debut PGA Tour event for Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, but it does have experience of hosting big events, having been the home to the Presidents Cup on four occassions – 95′, 96′, 2000 and 2005. Some useful insight there if you fancy having a cheeky gander.

So, after Brian Harman decided a collapse (he shot a clear worst 76) on Saturday was necessary having been 1 behind the leader, let’s hope for slightly more this week…

Will Wilcox (60/1 Coral)

Big celebrations.
Courtesy of PGA Tour

It’s unusual for our headline act to be at such high odds, but with the top 3 priced out and us not really fancying the chasing pack, Will Wilcox is someone that has a big appeal this week.

First of all his form far exceeds that of his price. Just look at those at higher odds – Bill Haas (33’s) has missed 3 cuts in a row, Justin Thomas (30’s) has one top 10 in amongst a best of T54 in 2 months, whilst Tiger (40’s) has, well, we’d rather not say.

Then we jump to Wilcox, 2 top 10’s in a row and some low shooting to boot. Last time out he finished 2^nd outright at the Barbasol Championship (runs alongside The Open) which ironically was held at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail – another course that filled the great man with pride and joy…

Before that he finished T8 at the John Deere and if you look at his individual rounds, he has shot below 70, 16 out of his last 20 outings. That dates back to May.

So Basically this lad is in good knick and whilst we understand he’s yet to win on the PGA Tour, he’s proven he can handle the pressure by winning on the Web.Com and it’s only his 2^nd year in the big time.

Plus, he simply suits the stats perfectly. 5^th for Total Driving (59^th distance, 16^th accuracy), 6^th GIR, 3^rd ball striking, 50^th strokes gained putting and just for good measure – 7^th for scrambling. If he can continue his form and shoot as well as he did on another Trent Jones favourite, we could be in for a right treat this week..

Jason Bohn (50/1 various)

Now, Jason Bohn is a slightly different player to Wilcox in that he lacks the same sort of distance with the driver, but tee to green, you cannot argue they are strong candidates and should suit this sort of track.

He lies in 4^th for driving accuracy and 42^nd in ball striking, which proves he is imperious at finding fairways and greens alike.

His form has been impressive over the past couple of weeks as well – T12 at the John Deere, which included a final day 64 and T13 at the Greenbrier which included a ridiculous 61. His performance on the Sunday was the difference between a win and where he ended up, but it does show he’s hitting the ball well and scoring freely – plus it was his lowest ever career round and put him back in that leading position again. More lessons learnt.

No denying he hasn’t had a win since 2010, but the Greenbrier should give him some confidence back, and he showed that with his following performance, so this feels like a good week to jump on the American, especially in an average field.

Johnson Wagner (66/1 BetVictor)

FanTASHtic

Johnson Wagner is another mid-ranger who fits most of the bill and is playing some pretty decent golf at the moment. After losing out in a playoff at the Shell Houston Open, he went on a horrific run of 6 missed cuts in 7 outings.

But he seems to have genuinely turned that around now, making 4 cuts in a row, including 3 top 18 finishes and even a T5 at the John Deere. He was very much in contention again last week in Canada, but fell off at the weekend with a couple of average rounds. Much like Wilcox though, his individual rounds have been very impressive – 11 of his last 16 outings, he’s shout 68 or below – that isn’t bad going at all..

He is decent across the board stats wise as well, 69^th total driving, 18^th GIR, 36^th ball striking and 71^st strokes gained putting, plus he is 47^th for approaches from 200 yards +.

Very encouraging and don’t forget, he is a 3-time PGA Tour winner…

Stewart Cink (80/1 various)

A classic Cink your head into your hands moment.

Oh my have we not been here several times throughout the season? A sort of refusal on our part to admit that Stewart Cink may not win again. There are many who have fallen in similar displays of sorrow before and there’ll be many more to come. But since that 2009 Open victory, we haven’t truly seen the best of a truly quality player.

So, why on earth are we going there again? Well, firstly, he is still an iron guru – 4^th GIR, 70^th ball striking – and he has the sort of game that could do well. Plus, he is one of a very limited number of guys who have actually played tournament golf here. He was part of the victorious American teams in the Presidents Cup back in 2000 and 2005. In 00′ he won all 4 of his points on offer and whilst it wasn’t as smooth sailing in 05′, he still came away with 1 ½ points to his name.

Finally and potentially most crucially, he would of actually won us all some money last week…! A T5 finish in Canada will surely give him the world of confidence coming into this event, especially having finished with a 66.

He also recorded an impressive T20 at The Open, so you cannot argue that he’s in good knick. Why not ey?!

Outsiders

Retief Goosen (100/1 various) and Jim Herman (200/1 BetVictor)

The Goose loves it.

A couple of cheeky outsiders to consider this week, coming in the form of Retief Goosen and Jim Herman.

Firstly, we’re going to check out the Hermanator. His form hasn’t been particularly mind-blowing, but an intriguing T22 finish over in Canada last week made up our minds to back the 37-year old with a few spare coppers.

He is back on the Tour after graduating again last year and is the sort of player who could do well here – 18^th Total Driving, 5^th GIR, 6^th Ball Striking and 18^th in approaches from 200 yards. The ol’ saying applies here – ‘Why not?.’

Then we have the Mighty Goose. (poor pun there for any fans of a certain Ice Hockey film…Poor)

Much like Cink, we’ve gone there a few times with the South-African, but we’ve actually reaped a few rewards and recently as well. He grabbed us a decent return in his T4 finish over in Germany at the BMW a few weeks ago. He played some decent golf to put himself in contention, shooting a 69 and 67 to close the tournament. He was inside the top 10 for GIR across the 4 days, which is hardly a surprise, so doubled with the fact he also managed T20 at The Open, we mutter those words once again. ‘Why not?’ PLUS he turned up at The Presidents Cup as well, winning 4 ½ points out of a possible 5 in 2005, including a 2 and 1 win against Tiger, whilst he managed 2 out of a possible 4 in 2000. He certainly knows the track…

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

RBC Canadian Open 2015

Prize Fund – $5,800,00

Winner’s Share – $1,026,000

Course – Glen Abbey Golf Course (7,273 yards Par 72)

Our 2014 Picks – Jim Furyk (2nd), David Hearn (T53), KJ Choi (T66), Tim Clark (WIN)

There’s no denying Zach Johnson was a worthy winner of the Open last week but we can’t hide our disappointment at not seeing Spieth do it again. His 4-putt on 8 would have broken the best of us – but not this guy. What a player and what a future he has. We’ve spoken about the Spieth/McIlroy rivalry for a while now but just sit back and imagine those two in a Sunday final pairing at a major.

As ever, we move quickly and swiftly on in golf. The Tour rocks up at Glen Abbey, the Canadian Open’s home if you were. With the odd exception, the tournament was held here for over 25 years until the early 2000’s where appearances became more sporadic.

We have somewhat of a love/hate relationship with this event with Hunter Mahan dropping out while leading in 2013 to attend the birth of his baby girl. But Tim Clark addressed the balance for us last year with a stunning display of putting.

Having read tons about the course, it’s all about the total drivers out there. The rough alongside the fairways won’t hurt you and getting it within wedge distance is key. We’re going to see plenty of approach shots from the 75-125 yard mark.

Courtesy of PGATour

One thing we also know is the rough gets a lot tougher around the greens. It makes GIR stats more vital than ever. For that inevitable miss around the greens, scrambling is of course going to be key and we’ve definitely factored that into our research. Also worth noting that Brandt Snedeker gave us a putting masterclass in 2013 having been relatively average tee to green.

Arguably the biggest factor coming in this week is the Open. Usually, the Canadian is one where guys who have done well at the Open can continue to do so here but we all know how crazy St Andrews was. A Monday finish and endless waiting around makes preparation for the Canadian tough. Naturally, these guys are good and can certainly go again but we won’t be touching anyone who made the cut in Scotland.

DON’T FORGET – Our weekly competition with renowned magazine Golf Monthly continues, take a peak at the end of our selections to see how our stakes have been distributed this time.

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

Kevin Chappell (66/1 Various)

This is the 3^rd time we’ve backed Chappell in recent times and rightly so in our opinion. He’s fully fit, settled into family life and striking the ball as good as ever.

His 8^th at the John Deere was recognition for the hard work he had put in over the last few months – finally his consistency is starting to pay off. So when we come to Glen Abbey, a place where total drivers thrive, the American is right up there for us.

Negatives would be that he’s only played here once and finished 68^th but we know this is a course that suits his eye and when he’s striking the ball as good as he is at the moment, he can transfer that to any track.

Chappell also ranked 3^rd putting at the John Deere which is ominous when paired with his tee to green game.

Brian Harman (70/1 Stan James)

All smiles again this week – courtesy of brianharmangolf

On reflection, it was a poor pick going with Harman last time out to defend his John Deere title. Fulfilling plenty of media obligations prior to the week meant the American couldn’t prepare as well as he would want. He was also paired alongside Jordan Spieth for three rounds – and we all know what he did on the 3^rd day.

So after a missed cut at St Andrews, Harman will travel to Canada with a lot of weight off his shoulders. He’s expressed in the media how well he is striking the ball and is just waiting for that little spark that would see him win PGA title number 2. Tee to green he’s ideal for Glen Abbey.

It has to be said his T24 as defending champ two weeks ago was very admirable and quite frankly if he had holed some putts, he would have contended. To put into perspective: ranked 2^nd GIR but 70^th (out of 73) in putting. We’ll put that down to the pressure… It’s a case of getting the putter working this week for Brian, because everything else is firing on all cylinders.

Roberto Castro (175/1 Coral)

Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

We like this one. Castro qualified on Monday for the Canadian, shooting a 65, alongside three other guys. This makes for a good few weeks as we’ve seen a pretty rapid rise in form since two missed cuts in June.

Last week’s T23 at the Barbasol saw him finish T17 GIR and 15^th putting – everything seems to be in good order. The final piece in the jigsaw was his 6^th at Glen Abbey he recorded in 2013. A couple of rounds in the 60’s saw him finish just 4 shots behind Snedeker, on -12. Roberto is also renowned for his wedge play and currently ranks 5^th on tour for approaches from 50-125 yards.

Rory Sabbatini (100/1 Stan James)

We are reluctantly going with the South African purely on the amount of factors he ticked. We can’t say there’s a real passion for Sabbatini but as we’ve shown the last couple of events with Lee and Wagner, stats matter.

His last two appearances at Glen Abbey, seperated by 13 years, were 6^th and more recently 12^th. Very recent form is nondescript but has recorded two top 10’s in his last six events.

Then we look at stats – 11^th scrambling, 24^th 50-125 yards and 35^th tee to green.

Ultimately he ticks every box from a betting perspective. Our hands are tied, we’re going with him.

Omega European Masters 2015

Prize Fund – €2,700,000

Winner’s Share – €450,000

Course – Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Course (6,848 yards Par 70)

After a truly outstanding week at St Andrews, we move on to one of the most breathtaking courses in world golf.

Crans-sur-Sierre is simply mind blowing.  Built smack bang in a skiing town, this magical track weaves through the side of a mountain resulting in some of the most picturesque scenes you could ever imagine.

One half of DownThe18th has luckily been over there this week (one of the reasons for this late preview!) and having spoken with a lot of the players, they all share the belief that this is a truly unique tournament.

The 7th hole is pretty ridiculous..

The course isn’t the most challenging you’ll ever find, as proven by some of the winning scores, but it sure is made up for by the intriguing layout.  On the face of it, you have a tree-lined and undulating short track that requires some thought off the tee with quite a few narrow fairways.

The bigger hitters can definitely reach a couple of the par 4’s – 6 and 7 – and eagle opportunities are rife with the right tee-shot.  With the thin air, the ball travels a lot further though, meaning the course can be over-powered but you can be punished within the trees if you are too wayward.

An ampi-theatre-esque hole that was designed by the one and only Seve Ballesteros

The winner will definitely have had a solid week tee to green and given themselves the opportunity to attack pins, but we are certain this is a course where you have to push and hold back depending on your drives and approaches.

A decent field has been assembled with the move back to July, so expect a really fascinating week.

Advised Bets

Victor Dubuisson (25/1 Paddy Power)

Tyrrell Hatton (50/1 BetVictor)

Alexander Levy (60/1 Paddy Power)

Alejandro Canizares (110/1 BetFred)

Outside Bets

Mike Lorenzo-Vera (150/1 Coral)

Lionel Weber (300/1 Paddy Power)

John Deere Classic 2015

Prize Fund – $4,700,000

Winner’s Share – $846,000

Course – TPC Deere Run (7,268 yards Par 71)

Our 2014 Picks – Brendon De Jonge (T45), Billy Hurley III (MC), Jerry Kelly (T3), Kyle Stanley (T63), Jason Bohn (MC)

For those of you who read the blog on a weekly basis, we’re sure you would have been as annoyed as us over the last few months – no winners and money seeping out of every orifice.

So to see Danny Lee (150/1) win the 4-man play-off on Sunday was an emotional moment. And by emotion we mean get the beers out.

In honour of the great man we’d like you to watch this video.

It’s always tough to follow up big win but we’re going to ride the crest of this wave and see if we can bring in some money just in time for the Open.

The John Deere is renowned for birdies, pure and simple. The last 6 winners have shot at least -19 with Stricker, who loves it here, reaching -26 for his win in 2010. So how do we make birdies? Finding fairways. Holing putts.

Brian Harman would have been a tough pick last year having missed the cut in his two previous tournaments. But he did record a top 20 two years prior. Of the last 8 winners, only Jordan Spieth didn’t have a top 20 coming in. It’s likely Spieth will be the exception in many stats over the next few years… All of this means course form is essential.

It’s by no means a long track, at 7,200 yards, which means any sort of player can win here. If you’re finding greens and holing putts, it doesn’t matter how you’ve got there. Inevitably it will boil down to getting in done over the weekend on the greens – any Lucas Glover’s out there, steer clear.

Courtesy of SBNation

DON’T FORGET – Our weekly competition with renowned magazine Golf Monthly continues, take a peak at the end of our selections to see how our stakes have been distributed this time.

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

Steven Bowditch (60/1 Coral)

In form – Courtesy of golfwrx

The Aussie deservedly grabs our number one spot this week. The last couple of years have seen Bowditch take it to a whole new level, picking up 2 wins (the last of which was 2 months ago at the Byron Nelson) and a top 30 at Augusta, at the first time of asking.

After inevitably going off the boil for a few weeks post-victory, Steve has returned 2 top 15’s in his last 2 starts. Look closer and you’ll find that he also ranked 2^nd in putting last week, behind Danny Lee. It will be a putting contest on Sunday, no doubt about it, so this confidence on the greens will be huge.

Currently ranks inside the top 50 in birdie %, par 3 and par 4 scoring. He knows how to shoot low and his 4 rounds in the 60’s last week shows he’s more ready than ever. Has also finished inside the top 12 in his last two John Deere Classics, ticking the all important course form box.

Brian Harman (40/1 Stan James)

All smiles again this week – courtesy of brianharmangolf

If there is a course you can go back-to-back on it seems like it’s this one. A win at the John Deere breeds confidence to go again. Ask Steve Stricker – he won 3 years on the trot. Let alone Zach Johnson who has only finished outside the top 3 once in 6 years.

We’ll admit that the aforementioned Johnson worries us but at 10/1 what can you do? Otherwise, the people above Harman in the market don’t scare us which makes 40’s good value.

We said in the preview Harman missed two cuts coming into this last year. This tells us TPC Deere Run sparks something in his game. Well, Harman finished 3^rd at the Travelers 2 weeks ago – ranking 2^nd GIR and 13^th putting. That tells us the spark is already there. If he can merge his current form with the performance he showed last year, there’s no doubting he’ll go close.

Scott Langley (100/1 Stan James)

We’ll rattle through these last 4 picks, all of whom find themselves at three figures. Up first is Langley who made it into our selections by the skin of his teeth.

Has finished 27^th and 33^rd here the last two years which shows there’s at least some affinity with the track. But more important is his current form. 25^th at the Travelers and 13^th last week.

He ranked 8^th GIR and 23^rd putting at the Greenbrier and was even better two weeks ago – 2^nd GIR. Interestingly, he was the 5^th worst putter to have made the cut at the Travelers which shows he regained some of his mojo with the short stick last week.

Jhonattan Vegas (150/1 Coral)

Looking to build on his 3rd last year

Since shoulder surgery at the back end of 2013, we’ve not seen a lot of Vegas. Every now and then he reminds us of what he’s all about though and we definitely saw that at the Greenbrier. But for a horror Saturday, where he shot 76, Vegas would have been right in the mixer. Perhaps being in contention going into the weekend was a bit much but the fact he shot 67 on Sunday shows he picked himself back up and found his game.

Vegas playing well excites us and what excites us more is the fact he finished 3^rd here last year – particularly impressive when you see his best finish here prior to that was 68^th. Then we delve into his Greenbrier stats and see he ranked 4^th GIR. All he needs is the putter to get hot and what better place to do it – that 3^rd place last year was his best finish since his T3 at the 2011 Farmers Insurance Open, and hasn’t bettered it since.

Johnson Wagner (175/1 Paddy Power)

Loves a tash

Very much like Danny Lee last week, we’ll end on a couple more stat-motivated picks.

After 5 missed cuts in a row, Wagner played a whole lot better at the Greenbrier last week. He ranked T2 GIR and shot all 4 rounds in the 60’s. Like Vegas, the putter was nowhere to be seen. But he too had a very successful 2014 at the John Deere, finishing 7^th. Delve deeper and you’ll find he ranks 39^th hole proximity, 34^th ball striking and 4^th par 3 performance. He also ranks 6^th for putts inside 10 feet – we like this stat the most.

Billy Hurley III (200/1 Paddy Power)

This guy can hole a putt or two

This guy is in the Jason Bohn mould for always ticking boxes when it comes to stats. But when you see they’ve done well previously on a certain courses it always grabs your interest. Billy finished 8^th here in 2012 which he won’t have forgotten about. That was his 6^th best-ever finish on the PGA Tour.

The American finished 37^th last week with 67’s in his first and last rounds. One thing you’re always guaranteed with Hurley is straight hitting and consistent putting and the Greenbrier was no different with him ranking 3^rd in putting.

If he can combine his putting with the other stats we see him doing well in (12^th hole proximity, 24^th par 3, 37^th driving accuracy) then 200/1 is an absolute snip.

Golf Monthly £10 Challenge

Every week we’re running a weekly betting competition on both Tours with esteemed magazine Golf Monthly.  It is a bit of fun between us and them to see who has the better tipsters!  We have £10 to put on each tournament and will write up a weekly post for their site detailing the horrors we are sure to endure throughout the year – so keep an eye out.

It will also (for the first time from us at DownThe18th) show some sort of staking plan we have for out bets.  Obviously, this isn’t the exact stakes we will put on our players, some weeks we won’t even enter a couple of our picks, but at least it can be shown roughly where our thoughts are money wise.

Our £10 against Golf Monthly will be as follows  –

£1.25 e/w on Steven Bowditch at 60/1 (Coral)

£1.75 e/w on Brian Harman at 40/1 (Stan James)

£0.75 e/w on Scott Langley at 100/1 (Stan James)

£0.50 e/w on Jhonattan Vegas 150/1 (Coral)

£0.40 e/w on Johnson Wagner 175/1 (Paddy Power)

£0.35 e/w on Billy Hurley III 200/1 (Paddy Power)

Each way bets ¼ odds for top 5 finish unless stated otherwise.

Find the Golf Monthly Preview here (http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/news/tour-news)

Current Standings after 25 weeks

Golf Monthly
European Tour:  £45.50
PGA Tour: £-19.00
Total: £26.50

DownThe18th
European Tour: £-100.62

PGA Tour: £23.80
Total: £-76.82

Greenbrier Classic 2015

Prize Fund – $6,700,000

Winner’s Share – $1,170,000

Course – The Old White TPC (7,287 yards Par 70)

Our 2014 Picks – Webb Simpson (3rd), Brendon De Jonge (T64), Chris Stroud (T4), Morgan Hoffman (MC), Andres Romero (T45)

Love him or hate him, Bubba Watson is good. He’s now racked up 8 career PGA Tour titles, the last of which came over the weekend, sealing his 2^nd Travelers title. And he will have certainly been in contention for ‘Thug-life’ video of the week after pitching one to 4 feet when one patron suggested a punch shot would be better. Have a look:

Paul Casey’s re-emergence overseas continued with his 2^nd play-off defeat in 2015. Both tee it up again this week in West Virginia and head the way in the betting.

It’s been a tough few weeks, months even, when it comes to picking winners at DownThe18th. So perhaps a tournament renowned for outsiders doing well is where our luck will change. The last few winners have been thus: Angel Cabrera (100/1), Jonas Blixt (125/1), Ted Potter Jnr (500/1) and Scott Stallings (175/1). Significantly, the last three winners have also been first-timers at the course. All of which suggests nightmare for punters.

What we do know is that the course is a track for all players. The trends are pretty solid though – people with extra distance off the tee thrive. From there, you need to find plenty of birdies (Stuart Appleby banged in a 59 round here in 2010) and be adept and doing so on par 4’s! We always like to follow these roughly but by no means take these trends as gospel.

As ever with flat tracks, putting is essential. Angel Cabrera was dominant tee to green in 2014 but it was much the same on the green – he ranked 3^rd in putting for the week. 2013 winner Blixt ranked 1^st in putting for the week when he won.

Also worth noting both Cabrera and Blixt had a top 15 finish in one of their three previous events leading up to the Greenbrier.

The Old White TPC Course looking delightful

DON’T FORGET – Our weekly competition with renowned magazine Golf Monthly continues, take a peak at the end of our selections to see how our stakes have been distributed this time.

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

Daniel Berger (70/1 Stan James)

New generation – courtesy of ESPN

Every sentence we added to our preview, Daniel Berger’s named just screamed at us. This event is perfect for someone to grab their first PGA win and properly announce themselves on the world stage. We could have made a similarly strong case for Tony Finau but at 40’s we felt it marginally short – not writing him off by no means though.

Berger’s season has been up and down as you would expect for a rookie but 5 top 10’s including a play-off defeat at the Honda shows this guy has a big future. When you think of some of the rookies down the years who have won in their first year, Berger’s potential far outweighs most of them. He deserves a win and this is the perfect course for it.

He’ll be looking to rekindle the form that saw him finish T10 two starts ago at the Byron Nelson. For the season his relevant stats read: 16th driving distance, 22nd GIR, 29th birdie average and 22nd par 4’s.

Kevin Chappell (66/1 Paddy Power)

5 cuts made in a row

Although it seems any prior form around this course gets written off, two top 20’s here for the American shows he can get it going on this track. We’ve seen a completely different attitude from him of late, becoming a father has matured him no end. With this new-found maturity, he has made the cut in each of his last 5 events.

On his day, he is one of the best ‘total drivers’ around and his length off the tee will help around this course. Naturally after a bleak campaign his stats are nothing to write home about but on his last start he ranked T19 GIR and T16 putting. In other words, things are getting back to where they once were.

Seung-Yul Noh (70/1 Stan James)

We Noh he’s got a good chance

The Korean is definitely one of our less backed players but the more we looked into him the more we like the look of his chances this week.

Firstly, his last 2 starts have seen a vast improvement from a mid-season slump he was enduring. He followed up a 3rd at the St.Jude Classic with a T20 last week. Both events he looked very tasty. The stats back this up – 1st GIR, 13th putting (St.Jude) and T6 GIR, 22nd putting (Travelers). If he can continue these trends this week he is going to make a ton of birdies. Incidentally, he ranks 45th in birdie % on Tour this season.

He also finished a respectable 27th 3 years ago on this track. He started like a train too, with 3 rounds in the 60’s on his first ever look at the course.

Jon Curran (125/1 Coral)

Another young guy staking a claim

Another rookie that could use the Greenbrier to catapult himself into world recognition. It’s been a pretty rapid rise for the American who’s jumped up over 1000 places in the world rankings, now #168.

He comes to the Greenbrier in decent form with two top 10’s in his last three starts. He particularly caught our eye when he finished T6 at the Byron Nelson, ranking 2nd in GIR. For the season his relative stats are healthy – 25th in fairways hit, 56th in GIR and 29th in scrambling. Also T6 in proximity to the hole and 16th in bogey avoidance.

It also seems Curran has the taste for winning right now, having won the CVS Health Charity Classic alongside Keegan Bradley on Tuesday, taking home $150,000 each in the process. That has to be a good omen, right?

Danny Lee (150/1 Coral)

Lethal on the greens

We’ll finish with another outsider and definitely the most ‘stat-motivated’ pick of the week.

Has actually been really solid of late with three top 25’s in his last 6 starts, the best of which coming at the Crowne Plaza, T10. Then we delve deeper and find out he’s one of the best putters on tour, 35th strokes gained putting. With quality like that on the greens it’s no wonder he also ranks 36th in birdie %.

To accompany his recent form, the New Zealander, born in Korea, finished 16th in this event last year. Not bad value in this field.

Golf Monthly £10 Challenge

Every week we’re running a weekly betting competition on both Tours with esteemed magazine Golf Monthly.  It is a bit of fun between us and them to see who has the better tipsters!  We have £10 to put on each tournament and will write up a weekly post for their site detailing the horrors we are sure to endure throughout the year – so keep an eye out.

It will also (for the first time from us at DownThe18th) show some sort of staking plan we have for out bets.  Obviously, this isn’t the exact stakes we will put on our players, some weeks we won’t even enter a couple of our picks, but at least it can be shown roughly where our thoughts are money wise.

Our £10 against Golf Monthly will be as follows  –

£1.50 e/w on Daniel Berger at 70/1 (Stan James)

£1.25 e/w on Kevin Chappell at 66/1 (Paddy Power)

£1.00 e/w on Seung-Yul Noh at 70/1 (Stan James)

£0.75 e/w on Jon Curran 125/1 (Coral)

£0.50 e/w on Danny Lee 150/1 (Coral)

Each way bets ¼ odds for top 5 finish unless stated otherwise.

Find the Golf Monthly Preview here (http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/news/tour-news)

Current Standings after 24 weeks

Golf Monthly
European Tour:  £55.50
PGA Tour: £-9.00
Total: £46.50

DownThe18th
European Tour: £-90.62

PGA Tour: £-60.95
Total: £-151.57

Golf Monthly leads by: £198.07

Alstom Open De France 2015

Prize Fund – €3,000,000

Winner’s Share – €500,000

Course – Le Golf National (Host of the 2018 Ryder Cup) (7,331 yards Par 71)

Our 2014 Picks – Jamie Donaldson (T5), Gregory Bourdy (T12), Anders Hansen (T48), Padraig Harrington (MC)

These are always the best months on the golfing calender, pitching up at one quality European track to the next. From Munich on Sunday to the gorgeous Le Golf National in Paris on Thursday.

It’s never nice seeing someone you seem to put half your mortgage on win when you’re not on them – which was the case when Larrazabal won last week. But we’re happy for him and would love to see him take things to the next level and challenge in one of the big 4.

Having attended the French Open in 2014, we’d like to think we know the track intimately. We spent so much time on the course and the one thing that stands out is the importance of finding fairways. They’re pretty tight and the rough makes finding some of the greens out there impossible. So first and foremost, your pick needs to be finding fairways. Added to this, there are plenty of water hazards and the course is exposed with wind sure to be getting up in spells.

Le Golf National in all its glory – courtesy of Today’s Golfer

It’s not the longest of yardages and McDowell winning back to back here shows it’s all about positioning off the tee, not how far down the fairway you are.

Inevitably we have to talk about GIR and the shots hit from the fairway – yes, your fairway game needs to be on song but from viewing it up close, we’re putting a lot more importance on the scrambling and putting side of things. McDowell and Jaidee in particular last year were almost dead-certs to get up and down every time they missed a green. Their final positions tell their own story.

Straight off the tee and confidence around and on the green is the order of the week.

DON’T FORGET – Our weekly competition with renowned magazine Golf Monthly continues, take a peak at the end of our selections to see how our stakes have been distributed this time.

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

Brendan Steele (33/1 Bet Victor)

Looking for a Steeley performance

No surprises that we’re all over any PGA Tour star that comes over to Europe and Brendan Steele rightly gets our number 1 spot for the week.

He came over to France in 2011 and again in 2012, both times finishing in 7^th place. That in itself is exciting. Since then he’s not set it alight over there but has regularly contended – to do that in America is no mean feat.

Last week at the Travelers Championship, Steele, after a couple of weeks break seemed to be striking the ball as good as when he finished 9^th at Quail Hollow a couple of months before. Just in time for his trip to Paris. For the week he ranked T2 GIR, 26^th putting, T12 driving accuracy. Feels a bit short in price but he’s going to have a big say this week.

Gregory Bourdy (55/1 BetFred)

French hope – courtesy of the Telegraph

We went there last year and we’re doing so again. We’ve seen glimpses of his best stuff in his last few events but has struggled to put it together for all 4 days – who can? Despite his very average finish in Munich last week we found it very interesting that he ranked 1^st driving accuracy and 3^rd GIR for the week.

Putting was where he let himself down. So that’s a negative coming into the French but he knows these greens well and the local support will be enough to get the confidence flowing and putts dropping.

He has 3 top 20’s here over the years and a best of 6^th in 2010. It’s time he stamped his authority on his home Open!

Hennie Otto (150/1 William Hill)

Always calculating everything when it comes to all his shots.

Great bit of value this one. The South African has a tendency to pop up at the top end of leaderboards from time to time. On his day, he’s a machine tee to green. So his T20 last week was made more interesting when you factor in he was 8^th driving accuracy and 9^th GIR.

In his last 5 finishes in France he has two 7^th places and another top 20. That shows he knows the course, knows the greens and has the ability to finish well.

Victor Riu (200/1 BetFred)

Can he find a Riu-te to victory?

Bit more of a vested interest with our final pick as we watched plenty of him last year on the way to his 8^th place. One facet of his game that particularly caught our eye throughout was his short game, not to mention the fact he was tied for 2^nd going into the final round.

Okay he shot a 76, but to register a top 10 when your only two previous times in Paris where missed cuts is some going. Very much like Otto, he showed glimpses of what he is all about in Germany – shooting a 67 to tie for 5^th after round 1 and ranking 9^th GIR for all four days.

Golf Monthly £10 Challenge

Every week we’re running a weekly betting competition on both Tours with esteemed magazine Golf Monthly.  It is a bit of fun between us and them to see who has the better tipsters!  We have £10 to put on each tournament and will write up a weekly post for their site detailing the horrors we are sure to endure throughout the year – so keep an eye out.

It will also (for the first time from us at DownThe18th) show some sort of staking plan we have for out bets.  Obviously, this isn’t the exact stakes we will put on our players, some weeks we won’t even enter a couple of our picks, but at least it can be shown roughly where our thoughts are money wise.

Our £10 against Golf Monthly will be as follows  –

£2.50 e/w on Brendan Steele at 33/1 (Bet Victor)

£1.25 e/w on Gregory Bourdy at 55/1 (BetFred)

£0.75 e/w on Hennie Otto at 150/1 (William Hill)

£0.50 e/w on Victor Riu 200/1 (BetFred)

Each way bets ¼ odds for top 5 finish unless stated otherwise.

Find the Golf Monthly Preview here (http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/news/tour-news)

Current Standings after 24 weeks

Golf Monthly
European Tour:  £55.50
PGA Tour: £-9.00
Total: £46.50

DownThe18th
European Tour: £-90.62

PGA Tour: £-60.95
Total: £-151.57

Golf Monthly leads by: £198.07

BMW International Open 2015

Prize Fund – €2,000,00

Winner’s Share – €333,330

Course – Golf Club Gut Larchenof (7,228 yards Par 72)

Our 2014 Picks – Franceso Molinari (T12), Pablo Larrazabal (T8), Chris Wood (T33), Fabrizio Zanotti (WIN)

Alright so who enjoyed Chambers Bay last week? Chris Kirk didn’t. Ian Poulter didn’t. But we did. Okay the greens were more unpredictable than the British weather but it sure gave us one hell of a spectacle. As for Jordan Spieth, the guy’s an animal.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned from golf it’s that there’s no time to rest and here we are in Germany for what is going to be a great 4 days. After a brief change to Cologne last year the Open heads back to Munich where you could say is home. 8 out of the last 10 events have been on this course.

The first thing we feel compelled to note is the US Open and how that will take its toll on those making the journey across the Atlantic this week. Ernie Els, off the back of his T4 at Merion in 2013, is the only person in recent times to have carried anything over from the major to Germany. To expect players to come straight from Chambers Bay, given how tough it was, to the flat fairways of Munich is a tough ask. Their game and setup for last week would have been completely different to the norm, fair play to anyone who makes that transition a smooth one. We’re staying clear.

Last time the event was held on this course we talked about driving accuracy being important and although it’s nice, it’s not a must around here. Fairways are generous. What we can’t ignore is the GIR trend around the Munich track. 2011 winner Pablo Larrazabal ranked 2^nd for the week in GIR. Joost Luiten, T3, ranked 3^rd GIR. And the last time it was held here in 2013, Ernie Els ranked 1^st GIR – Martin Kaymer finished 4^th, ranking 2^nd GIR.

This all make sense when you take into account what the course is like. Plenty of trees, plenty of water and plenty of reasons to be finding the fairway. As has been proven in the past, when you find the short stuff there are plenty of birdies out there. Nick Dougherty got it to -22 in 2009 while David Howell got to -23, the highest score in the last 10 years. The winning average is up there at nearly -18.

All this said means the event will be won and lost from the fairway – iron players will thrive. Take a look at some of the winners around here: Els, Larrazabal, Howell, Horsey, Kaymer, Stenson. Getting it close and bringing your ‘A’ game around the greens is what’s going to get it done here.

If there’s one thing we like, it’s a good iron player.

DON’T FORGET – Our weekly competition with renowned magazine Golf Monthly continues, take a peak at the end of our selections to see how our stakes have been distributed this time.

You can follow us throughout the week on Twitter @downthe18th for the latest news, betting + banter. Please get in touch and let us know what you think of our picks and who you fancy as well!

Thomas Bjørn (40/1 Stan James)

We want plenty of smiles this week

We’ve systematically eliminated a lot of the top guys this week, mainly due to participation at Chambers Bay. But one man we can’t get off our list is Bjørn.

His 2^nd the last time it was held here showed despite his advancing years he’s still one the best around in Europe. He was tied with South African Els with 6 to play but a poor drive on 14 put pay to any chances he had of lifting the trophy. Despite this, he showed he had to the course nailed, finding plenty of birdies and ranking 15^th GIR & 3^rd putts per GIR for the week.

Unlike most, the Dane comes to Munich with plenty of rest. He last played 3 weeks ago at the Nordea Masters. And one thing we know about Bjørn is when he putts well he’s dangerous. In Sweden he ranked 1^st putts per GIR. Two weeks prior to that, he finished T11 around Wentworth ranking 6^th GIR. Now, if he can pull these two facets of his game together and rekindle the sort of play he found around here 2 years ago, we’ll be all over it.

Scott Jamieson (66/1 Various)

Nike don’t just sponsor anyone – Courtesy of EveningTimes

Like the Dane that precedes Jamieson, this is man in good touch with a nice week’s rest under his belt.

The Scot has been playing solid stuff for nearly 2 months now, just not grabbing the high finish he deserves. Albeit in a lesser quality field, his T11 at the Lyoness Open 2 weeks ago finally gave us a glimpse of him mixing it at the top end of the leaderboard.

Before Austria, Scott teed it up at the tough links of Royal County Down. Despite finishing T30, he ranked 7^th in both driving accuracy and GIR. So his game is definitely there.

We know on a flat track Jamieson has the ability to go low and find plenty of birdies which is exactly what he did around here in 2011, finishing with a final round 64 on his way to a T3.

We feel he is ready to burst and 66/1 looks like a good price to us.

Retief Goosen (90/1 Coral)

LOVES Germany – courtesy of Golf Channel

Okay, the course form of this man is sublime. Have a look: 2011 (3^rd), 2009 (3^rd), 2008 (13^th), 2006 (2^nd), 2004 (6^th). Goose used to be a legend on the European Tour but lately we’ve not seen a lot of him. At 46, he’s still got a lot to give.

On paper this might look like a bit of an obvious pick given his love for the Munich-based course but it’s not. We’re taking into account the form we’ve seen across the pond. The South African finished T3 at this season’s Frys.com Open while his T8 at the Northern Trust could have been so much better after leading for the first 3 rounds. Now, to be leading on the PGA Tour shows you’re in good touch.

Rarely does he make the journey over to Europe so his love for this course alone is enough for us to jump all over the 90/1 on offer.

Bernd Ritthammer 200/1 (Paddy Power)

Okay..

Only right we finish with a German in his home Open.

With all eyes on Kaymer and Kieffer in particular this man could genuinely sneak up on everyone. His T7 at the Nordea Masters 3 weeks ago saw him rank 4^th putts per GIR, 10^th GIR and 16^th driving accuracy. Everything was working well. That finish was the 4^th best of his career.

The only time he teed it up at Munich, 2 years ago, he finished T22. He had a lot less European Tour experience and was nearly double the rank he is in the world right now. The German only has 2 career top 10’s on the European Tour, both of which have been in his last 5 events. He’s taking it to a new level at the moment and what better stage to properly announce yourself than the BMW in Munich?

Golf Monthly £10 Challenge

Every week we’re running a weekly betting competition on both Tours with esteemed magazine Golf Monthly.  It is a bit of fun between us and them to see who has the better tipsters!  We have £10 to put on each tournament and will write up a weekly post for their site detailing the horrors we are sure to endure throughout the year – so keep an eye out.

It will also (for the first time from us at DownThe18th) show some sort of staking plan we have for out bets.  Obviously, this isn’t the exact stakes we will put on our players, some weeks we won’t even enter a couple of our picks, but at least it can be shown roughly where our thoughts are money wise.

Our £10 against Golf Monthly will be as follows  –

£2.45 e/w on Thomas Bjorn at 40/1 (Stan James)

£1.25 e/w on Scott Jamieson at 66/1 (Paddy Power)

£1.00 e/w on Retief Goosen at 90/1 (Coral)

£0.35 e/w on Bernd Ritthammer 200/1 (Paddy Power)

Each way bets ¼ odds for top 5 finish unless stated otherwise.

Find the Golf Monthly Preview here (http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/news/tour-news)

Current Standings after 23 weeks

Golf Monthly
European Tour: £1.00
PGA Tour: £1.00
Total: £2.00

DownThe18th
European Tour: £-96.95
PGA Tour: £-50.95
Total: £-146.90

Golf Monthly leads by: £148.90

FedEx St. Jude Classic 2015

The PGA Tour moves onto Memphis this week as we enter the final few hurdles before the US Open makes its big mark on the season. Do check out our 1^st preview when it’s published in a few days!

Basically, the players are now just gearing up for Chambers Bay, using the next couple of weeks as a warm up and for some this will be their last outing before that next major.

The field isn’t particularly mouth-watering, but there’s still enough big names to get the juices flowing – Dustin Johnson (who considering what the course is like, miraculously won here in 2012!), Phil Mickelson (again, decent form considering his wayward tee game), Webb Simpson, Brooks Koepka, Harris English et al are some of the ‘bigger names’ at the event.

TPC Southwind is an unusual track in some ways, because it can certainly cause players difficulty with it’s abundance of lakes, ponds and hazards in general. However, on the surface it doesn’t look like a place that should be too challenging.

The Par 70 stands at 7,239 yards and requires the ball to be kept in play. Looking at the players who have won here in recent history, you can see that they’ve had their iron game in absolute control, as well as being hot with the putter.

Ben Crane, English and DJ all struck the ball beautifully during their wins, whilst found the knack of holing putts. When we look at last years stats, there are correlations with accuracy and putting – barring Matt Every who finished in a tie for 3^rd, everyone inside the top 6 were consistent across the board for driving accuracy, GIR and putting.

Interestingly. Only Brian Harman finished outside the top 30 for putting stats from the guys who were inside the top 11…

It’s also worth keeping in mind that scrambling could play a part from around the difficult greens, because obviously you aren’t going to hit the dance floor 100% of the time!

Webb Simpson (18/1 various)

Gunning for another victory on a tough course

Webb Simpson is obviously one of the favourites and understandably so considering his recent outing and finish here last year. For those of you that follow us regularly, you will know that we rarely go for the top end of the market, but this time it’s too appealing.

When it comes to requirements for this track, Webb fits the majority of them. He is 11^th in total driving and 19^th for GIR, which is simply the perfect tee to green combination for Southwind.

We all know how impressive he can be with his irons. Last time out at the Wells Fargo he finished top of the driving accuracy stats for the week and 38^th for GIR.

But the big mark against him at the moment is his putting, however this is the main reason we have decided we want to go with him… He finished 11^th for total putting at Quail Hollow ending the tournament in a tie for 2^nd.

That is much better form and shows he actually started holing some putts. If he can bring that here, he’ll be in a fantastic position to challenge – plus he finished T3 on this track last year…

Luke Donald (40/1 Coral)

Time for some success from the Englishman

Now, considering the 40/1 price, this is a risky bet. However, Luke Donald just has that duel feeling of ‘what if’ and ‘close but no cigar.’

The Englishman has been pretty average for quite a while now and without his absolutely ridiculous short game, he would have missed cuts galore.

And that is the main reason we fancy him this week. At the BMW he was simply awful at time off the tee – but his scrambling, touch and putting saved him on several occasions.

Moving on one week, he looked a bit better tee to green and that got us thinking he might have a say come the end of the tournament.

He finished in a tie for 18^th and on the Sunday he was 11^th for driving accuracy, 26^th GIR and 10^th putts per round, whilst on the Saturday he was 18^th driving accuracy, 15^th GIR and 19^th putts per round.

If that doesn’t make you want to go there, nothing ever will.

Scott Pinckney (90/1 Coral) 

Scott Pinckney seems like a very interesting outsider this week. He is only 26 years old and spent some time over in Europe with not a great deal of success, but he is still a promising talent.

He’s supposedly mates with the world number one – not hugely sure how that helps – but we have seen 4 top 12’s since March which is decent form for anyone.

But last time out he shot 2 64’s at the Byron Nelson to finish in a tie for 2^nd which is very exciting.

He’s 97^th for driving accuracy, 54^th for GIR and 42^nd strokes gained putting and simply seems like a decent pick considering the field and odds!

Golf Monthly £10 Challenge

Every week we’re running a weekly betting competition on both Tours with esteemed magazine Golf Monthly.  It is a bit of fun between us and them to see who has the better tipsters!  We have £10 to put on each tournament and will write up a weekly post for their site detailing the horrors we are sure to endure throughout the year – so keep an eye out.

It will also (for the first time from us at DownThe18th) show some sort of staking plan we have for out bets.  Obviously, this isn’t the exact stakes we will put on our players, some weeks we won’t even enter a couple of our picks, but at least it can be shown roughly where our thoughts are money wise.

Our £10 against Golf Monthly will be as follows  –

£3.50 e/w on Webb Simpson at 18/1 (PaddyPower 6 Places)

£1.00 e/w on Luke Donald at 40/1 (StanJames)

£0.50 e/w on Scott Pinckney at 90/1 (Coral)

Each way bets ¼ odds for top 5 finish unless stated otherwise.

Find the Golf Monthly Preview here (http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/news/tour-news)

Current Standings after 19 weeks

DownThe18th                                 Golf Monthly

European Tour: £-71.95                  European Tour:  £-50.62

PGA Tour: £-25.94                           PGA Tour: £23.75

Total: £-97.89                                   Total: £-26.87

Golf Monthly leads by: £70.02