Masters 2013 Stats and Preview
By Lewis Pacelli
Our initial “four week” preview before The Tampa Bay Championship has now developed and things have become a lot clearer before the first major, now only TWO weeks away!Brandt Snedeker simply does not look right sadly and even though he has drifted out in the market, his game will not hack Augusta in its current state. We never thought we would say that! Charles Howell looks very likely to not make the field sadly and Charl Schwartzel is too up and down for us. He is definitely one of those with the capabilities but his inconsistency per round makes us slightly uncomfortable!
We wanted to share a system with you in how we picked our initial players, as there are many trends at this major mainly due to the fact it never moves…
- Each of the past 13 winners made the cut at The Masters the year before
- The past 15 major winners had a previous top-10 in the same year
- Past 5 winners were in the top 60 for driving distance on Tour and averaging 290 yards throughout the season
- Past 6 winners have been inside the top 63 for scoring average on Tour
- 7 of the past 8 winners finished in the top-25 at the previous years PGA Championship
This criteria cut the field down considerably, so we then added other key stats
- Changes were made in 2008 to combat a certain Tiger and since then every winner hit GIR of at least 68% during the 4 days. We therefore are factoring in GIR of around 60% on Tour for the season
- The last 5 winners had driving accuracy of at least 58%, so we feel around 55% accuracy of the tee is required
- 9 of the last 11 winners were inside the top 20 for putting average during the tournament, so we are looking at around the top 75 in putting stats.
- The most crucial holes where you need to find birdies are the par 5’s. The past 5 winners have hit a combined under par average, so around top 75 on par 5 scoring average and par 5 birdies or better % – The last 4 winners have played their combined 64 Par 5 holes in –38
This pretty much cancelled out the whole field and left us with only a few golfers, but for safe measure, we incorporated the following variations
- There’s been only one first-time PGA Tour winner at the Masters since 1948: Bernhard Langer in 1985.
- 69% or 24 of 35 players of the Top 3 finishers from 2004 through 2012 at Augusta were residents in the Southern United States
- The average age of the green jacket bearer is 32
- The average attempts before a first win is 6
With all of those trends considered, we were left with just 3 players.
- Tiger Woods
Now it is no real surprise to be left with the new number 1 golfer in the world. He ticks every single box and has been on majestic form this year. The only things stopping Woods is the fact that the number 1 has not won here since 2002. Guess who that was though?
- Justin Rose
His odds have been cut down by many bookmakers for obvious reasons – he is finally in the major-winning form his amateur days promised. Tee to green he is technically superb and his putting is getting better.
- Adam Scott
Now there is one thing that isn’t in the Australians favour – he does not live in Southern United States. However, when everything else is is a perfect fit, you cannot ignore him. He is a definate major-winner and he will want to avenge last years collapse at The Open.
Special mention must go to Sergio Garcia whose stats are a perfect match, however he missed the cut at the PGA and also lives back in Europe. Funnily enough one of his houses is next door to Scott!
We will be publishing our 6 initial picks this week before a final preview the Monday of the actual tournament. For now, here is our stats pack that you may find very helpful in making your decision!
On the European circuit –
In terms of the stats, Peter Hanson, Hunter Mahan, Keegan Bradley, Henrik Stenson and Charles Howell stand out in particular, with good all round games from tee to green.